报告题目：Coastal sea level rise with warming above 2 °C
地 点：青藏高原研究所办公楼915 会议室
时 间：2016年4月29日(星期五) 14:30-16:30
Two degrees of global warming above the pre-industrial level is widely suggested as an appropriate threshold beyond which climate change risks become unacceptably high. This “2°C” threshold is likely to be reached between 2040 and 2050 for both Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 and 4.5. Resulting sea level rises will not be globally uniform due to ocean dynamical processes and changes in gravity associated with water mass-redistribution. Probabilistic sea level rise projections for the global coastline demonstrate that by 2040, with a 2°C warming under the RCP8.5 scenario, more than 90% of coastal areas will experience sea level rise exceeding the global estimate of 0.2 m, with for example, up to 0.4 m expected along the Atlantic coast of North America and Norway. With a 5°C rise by 2100, sea level will rise rapidly, reaching 0.9 m (median), and 80% of the coastline will exceed the global ocean sea level rise the 95th percentile upper limit of 1.8 m. Under RCP8.5 by 2100, New York, Guangzhou and Lagos may expect rises of more than 90 cm with the 95th percentile upper limit of about 2 m. The coastal communities of rapidly expanding cities in the developing world, and vulnerable tropical coastal ecosystems will have a very limited time after mid-century to adapt to sea level rises unprecedented since the dawn of the Bronze Age.